Russia claims to have halted a Ukrainian incursion into its territory on Thursday, although latest evidence from the ground suggests fighting continues in the Kursk region.

The Russian Ministry of Defense said units of the “North” group of its forces, together with the Russian Federal Security Service, the FSB, “continue to destroy Ukrainian armed forces formations in the Sudzhensky and Korenevsky districts of the Kursk region, which are directly adjacent to the Russian-Ukrainian border.”

Ukraine has not officially confirmed its forces conducted a ground operation inside Russia.

Neither the Ukrainian military nor the government in Kyiv has commented on the operation.

Russia accused Ukrainian troops of crossing the border into its Kursk region on Tuesday, claiming that Ukrainian forces launched a “massive attack” and attempted to break through the Russian defenses.

The extent of the attack, including whether Ukrainian troops took over any settlements or caused damage to any strategic targets, remains unclear.

The Russian state news agency TASS on Thursday quoted the Russian Health Ministry as saying 34 people were injured in the shelling of the Kursk region were “undergoing inpatient treatment,” with nine evacuated to Moscow for treatment.

The Russian Defense Ministry said “attempts by individual [Ukrainian] units to break through deep into the territory in the Kursk direction are being thwarted.”

It claimed that the Ukrainians had “lost up to 400 servicemen and 32 armoured vehicles, including a tank, four armoured personnel carriers, three infantry fighting vehicles and 24 Kozak armoured fighting vehicles.” The ministry’s claims cannot be verified.

Russian military bloggers have described the situation as difficult, with communications jammed.  One prominent blogger was seriously injured Wednesday when his vehicle was struck.

Mick Ryan, author of the Futura Doctrina blog and an analyst of the war in Ukraine, said Thursday that the Ukrainian military had deployed “quality formations. It appears that unlike in the 2023 southern counteroffensive where fresh brigades were employed, the Ukrainians have allocated experienced formations to this attack. This already appears to be paying dividends with the depth of the Ukrainian penetration so far.”

The US-based conflict monitoring group the Institute for the Study of War said in its assessment on Thursday that “Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers” into the Kursk region on Wednesday.

Kyiv remains silent on incursion claims

Ukraine’s allies have not commented on the situation beyond saying the country has the right to defend itself. The EU’s foreign affairs and security policy spokesperson Peter Stano told the Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne News that according to the international law, Kyiv “has the legal right to defend itself, including striking an aggressor on its territory.”

It remains unclear why Ukrainian forces would launch an attack of the scale described by Russian authorities.

Ukrainian troops have found themselves under increased pressure along the 600-mile frontline as Moscow continues its slow, grinding offensive.

Kyiv has started receiving new tranches of the long-delayed US military assistance in May, but is still facing troop shortages because many of its newly recruited soldiers are still in training.

An incursion into Russia could be an attempt by Kyiv to divert Russian resources elsewhere. Given the spate of more negative developments from the frontline, the news of a successful incursion help Kyiv boost the morale of its troops and civilian population.

It could also be a message to Russia’s civilian population – a demonstration that Moscow’s war on Ukraine makes Russia vulnerable to attacks.

The European Union has imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on Russia – with the exception of key natural gas imports. The EU was dependent on Russian gas and while it has slashed imports from Russia from 45% of all gas imports in 2021, to 15% of EU gas imports in 2023, some Russian gas still continues to flow to Europe through Ukraine, despite the war.