Crypto market maturity and resilience

According to Elkaleh, Bitcoin’s resilience during its recent pullback, which brought a 37 percent drawdown from its October all-time high, was telling. While such severity was surprising, he observed that long-term holders and institutions continued to accumulate rather than unwind exposure, which he sees as an indicator of health.

“Q4 was defined by a major leverage reset, with BTC’s sharp pullback forcing a broader reassessment of risk,” he said.

At the time of this writing, analysts were split on where Bitcoin could go next. A further crash risk lingers if the US Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts; however, a post-purge rally to US$135,000 to US$150,000 is in sight mid-year if institutions return, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows flip positive and futures premiums stabilize above 5 percent.

As Bitcoin dropped, Elkaleh observed other segments of the market tied to practical use cases and diversification strategies — such as privacy assets, decentralized AI and stablecoin ecosystems — weather the storm.

“The market (has shown) growing maturity: capital and developer attention shifted toward utility-driven sectors such as tokenization, stablecoins and real-world integrations.”

Tokenization: The on-chain first institutional default

Mersch sees tokenization accelerating in 2026, eventually becoming the default for new institutional financial products.

He sees the foundation of this shift being built, with tokenized treasuries and money-market funds serving as a core yield sleeve for institutional investors who demand liquidity, standardized reporting and programmable settlement.

“If current growth holds, tokenized assets could be a multi-trillion dollar market by 2030, with government bonds and cash-like instruments as the anchor,” he said. “Over the next five years, the key shift is likely that new institutional products are designed as on-chain first, and only secondarily wrapped in legacy wrappers.”

He anticipates that stablecoins will be solidified as the liquidity backbone for a growing tokenized market, acting as the new cash layer. The most likely end state, according to Mersch, will be a hybrid digital cash stack, where bank-issued stablecoins, private stablecoins and central bank digital currenciesco-exist and interoperate.

Mersch predicts that tokenized real estate and private credit will now start to see expansion.

For real estate, tokenization converts a traditionally illiquid market into tradable, divisible assets, lowering the barrier to entry for global investors and providing recurring revenue streams.

Rupena, whose company, Milo, pioneered the crypto-backed mortgage, asserts that lenders will be expected to recognize digital assets as a core part of a client’s real balance sheet, just like cash or securities.

Elkaleh also expects to see strong expansion in RWA tokenization in 2026, alongside stablecoin-based payouts and small-business payment rails. “The most accelerated growth will occur in emerging markets, where mobile-first users turn to crypto as a practical financial alternative,” he wrote in an email.

“The rise of RWA markets, L2 scalability and more accessible DeFi will allow onchain credit and savings to scale meaningfully. Combined with steady institutional inflows, these economies will become the strongest demand engines of 2026, driving both user growth and real economic activity onchain.”

DeFi: An institutional derivatives and credit layer

The final pillar of the 2026 crypto outlook is the maturation of DeFi. Mersch asserted that DeFi is poised to emerge as a compliance-ready core platform for credit and risk management in 2026.

Real-world structural resilience supports Mersch’s forecast.

Rupena noted that market ups and downs are expected in the digital asset ecosystem, and that conservative LTVs, real-time monitoring and clear margining frameworks are designed to cope with volatility.

“Lower forced liquidation activity, even during big market moves, is a very healthy signal,” he explained, adding that customers are purposely keeping collateral cushions so they can stay calm during market swings.

This focus on prudence and durability validates the market’s readiness for institutional-grade credit and risk products.

“If successful, this creates a liquid, 24/7 derivatives layer that sits on top of both tokenized and traditional markets,” Mersch said. “By 2026 and beyond, the most interesting innovation may not be crypto versus TradFi, but portfolio and product designs that blend tokenized assets, stablecoin liquidity and DeFi-based synthetic exposure into a single stack.”

This institutional leap is fundamentally enabled by regulatory clarity.

“You can already see this through partnerships like Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) with Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) and Morpho (TSE:3653), where yield is embedded at the platform level without requiring users to interact directly with on-chain protocols. Regulation will accelerate that model,’ he added.

Elkaleh noted that clearer rules will allow users to adopt on-chain tools for cross-border payments, tokenized savings and AI-driven bill pay with the same confidence they have in regulated fintech apps. He expects the most transformational impact will come from next-generation L2 scalability paired with AI-agent execution.

“These shifts will bring down transaction costs, compress settlement times, and enable autonomous payments, subscriptions and cross-chain operations,” the expert explained.

“We also expect prediction-market aggregation to emerge as a breakout consumer interface and RWA perpetuals to bring macro assets, including commodities, credit and inflation onchain through synthetic markets. These developments collectively move crypto into a more comprehensive, high-velocity financial system.”

Upcoming crypto market catalysts

The pivot to a hybrid financial system will be driven by several concurrent catalysts.

The US Market Structure Bill is targeted for a Senate floor vote in early 2026, aiming to create the first federal framework for digital assets. North of the border, Canada’s Stablecoin Act, which provides C$10 million for Bank of Canada oversight starting in 2026, signals official endorsement of the digital cash layer.

Globally, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is set to implement new capital standards for banks’ crypto exposures, crucial for encouraging institutional momentum, by January 1, 2026.

The technological engine supporting this adoption is fueled by scalability and intelligence.

On the blockchain side, Ethereum’s aggressive roadmap, including the Glamsterdam upgrade targeted for 2026, continues to refine Layer-2 (L2) systems. This focus on L2 efficiency, combined with the integration of AI agent execution, is key for supporting the millions of transactions needed for a comprehensive, high-velocity financial system.

Investor takeaway

In 2026, the crypto market is set to deliver meaningful gains and stable, sustained growth as this new, highly efficient, and globally interoperable financial system moves from the laboratory into production scale.

1. Industrial fabrication

Expected demand in 2025: 677.4 million ounces

Silver is the best electrical and thermal conductor of all the metals, so it’s no surprise that it’s used in industrial fabrication. Industrial silver demand has seen steady growth in recent years. Coming in at just 491 million ounces in 2016, industrial demand rose to 592.3 million ounces in 2022, 657.1 million ounces in 2023 and a record 680.5 million ounces in 2024.

For 2025, the Silver Institute believes industrial demand will see a slight regression of 0.5 percent to 677.4 million ounces.

Here’s a brief rundown of the main industrial uses driving silver demand:

Electronics — In electronics, industrial silver is used mainly in multi-layer ceramic capacitors, membrane switches, silvered film, electrically heated automobile windshields, conductive adhesives and the preparation of thick-film pastes.

Electronics is expected to remain an important driver for silver going forward, as per the Silver Institute, which expects overall industrial silver consumption to reach 456.6 million ounces in 2025. Photovoltaics form the largest portion of electronic demand, totaling 197.6 million tons in 2024.

Using silver as conductive ink, photovoltaic cells transform sunlight into electricity. These cells are combined to form solar panels. The use of silver in the fabrication of photovoltaic cells, also known as solar cells, is seen as an area of rapid growth in the short to medium term. In fact, SolarPower Europe reported that total installations reached 2.2 terawatts by the end of 2024, and are expected to more than triple to more than 7 terawatts by 2030.

Automotive industry — Every electrical action in a modern car is activated with silver-coated contacts. Basic functions such as starting the engine, opening power windows, adjusting power seats and closing power trunks are all activated using a silver membrane switch. Furthermore, in January 2021, the Silver Institute reported that, depending on the model, battery electric vehicles contain between 25 and 50 grams of silver, while hybrid vehicles use 18 to 34 grams of silver. That’s compared to 15 to 28 grams of silver in a light internal combustion engine vehicle.

The Silver Institute has projected that automotive demand for silver could reach 90 million ounces by 2025. The association states that silver demand from the car industry will be driven by infrastructure investment, broader decarbonization efforts and the expansion of charging stations.

Brazing and soldering — Adding silver to the process of soldering or brazing helps produce smooth, leak-tight and corrosion-resistant joints when combining metal parts. In addition, silver-brazing alloys are used widely in everything from air conditioning and refrigeration to electric power distribution. The Silver Institute predicts demand from this segment to total 52.9 million ounces in 2025.

2. Jewelry

Expected demand in 2025: 196.2 million ounces

Jewelry is often what laypeople think about when they consider silver demand. And for good reason — few materials are better suited for jewelry than silver. Lustrous but resilient, silver responds well to sculpting, requires minimal care and lasts a lifetime.

While silver and gold possess similar working qualities, the white metal enjoys greater reflectivity and can achieve a brilliant polish. A vast amount of silver supply from mine production gets turned into a form of jewelry. The segment grew moderately by 3 percent in 2024, rising to 208.7 million ounces, but the Silver Institute is predicting a significant reversal in 2025, with a 6 percent decline to 196.2 million ounces.

3. Silver bullion, coins and bars

Expected demand in 2025: 204.4 million ounces

Another source of silver demand is for silver as an investment in the form of silver coins, bars and rounds. This category includes the silver used to fabricate the bullion, as well as small bar purchases by retail investors, according to the Silver Institute.

Silver coins have a long history. Minted silver coins were first used in the Eastern Mediterranean region in 550 BCE, and by 269 BCE the Roman Empire had adopted silver as well. Silver was the main circulating currency until the 19th century, when it was phased out of regular coinage.

While silver is not used in many circulating coins today, mints in many countries still create high-purity bullion coins and bars for investors.

Physical silver investment demand reached a record high of 338.3 million ounces in 2022, but declined considerably to 244.3 million ounces in 2023, before falling another 22 percent to 190.9 million ounces in 2024.

However, with rising uncertainty in global financial markets, the institute is predicting 7 percent growth in 2025 to 204.4 million ounces.

Silver exchange-traded products (ETPs) and silver ETFs purchase significant amounts of physical silver. Silver ETPs have experienced high volatility over the last five years, with demand peaking in 2020 with net inflows of 331.1 million ounces of silver, which fell to to 64.9 million ounces in 2021. Following the pandemic, ETPs experienced heavy outflows with investors selling off 117.4 million ounces in 2022 and 37.6 million ounces in 2023.

In 2024, as uncertainty began to seep into global financial markets, investors once again returned to ETPs, pushing demand to 61.6 million ounces of silver flowing into the products.

The Silver Institute expects demand to grow by 14 percent in 2025 to 70 million ounces, attributing these inflows to cuts to the Federal Funds rate, concerns over US debt load, and instability in the Middle East.

4. Silverware

Expected demand in 2025: 46 million ounces

Sterling silver has been the standard for silver holloware and silver flatware since the 14th century. Silver cutlery and other decor lasts for generations as it resists tarnish and is a traditional decoration in homes around the world. Base metal copper is mixed with silver to strengthen it for use as cutlery, bowls and decorative items.

Demand for the metal from the silverware industry reached 73.5 million ounces in 2022 but has declined since then to 54.2 million ounces in 2024. The Silver Institute expects the market to shed another 15 percent in 2025 to 46 million ounces.

Bitcoin and Ether price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$92,758.95, up by 4.1 percent over 24 hours.

Bitcoin price performance, December 3, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

After Bitcoin stared the week with its largest single-day decline in a month, it rallied about 6.6 percent in 24 hours to reclaim US$93,000. This now marks Bitcoin’s highest intraday level in more than two weeks.

Despite the cryptocurrency’s rebound, analysts are still urging caution and advising investors to await clearer macro signals before fully re-entering higher-risk assets.

Ether (ETH) also regained ground and is currently priced at US$3,051.34, up 7.1 percent over 24 hours.

Altcoin price update

• XRP (XRP) was priced at US$2.19, an increase of 4.6 percent over 24 hours.

• Solana (SOL) was trading at US$142.17, up by 6.6 percent over 24 hours.

Today’s crypto news to know

Strategy faces possible removal from MSCI indexes

Michael Saylor’s Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) is in discussions with index provider MSCI as the company thinks about removing Strategy from major stock indexes, according to Reuters.

MSCI is considering cutting companies whose business model is to buy crypto. Strategy currently holds about 650,000 BTC and has relied on new debt and equity issuance to add to its holdings.

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) estimates a removal could trigger up to US$8.8 billion in outflows if other index providers follow suit. Saylor said the company is participating in MSCI’s review process, but questioned the scale of possible selling projected by JPMorgan. A verdict is expected by January 15 of next year.

Sony partner launches stablecoin for Soneium

Startale Group has launched USDSC, a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar that is designed to serve as the default settlement currency on Sony Group’s (NYSE:SONY,TSE:6758) Soneium blockchain.

According to a Decrypt report, the launch includes a new rewards program called STAR Points that is geared at encouraging user activity across payments, liquidity supply and app interaction. Soneium went live earlier this year following a test phase that drew 14 million users and processed 50 million transactions.

Startale CEO Sota Watanabe said USDSC aims to support payments and yield generation across the network’s creator-focused ecosystem. Stablecoin infrastructure firm M0 is providing backend support for issuance and liquidity.

A waitlist for the Startale app is open to users seeking early access to USDSC features and rewards.

SEC blocks rollout of high-leverage ETFs

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has halted the approval process for multiple ultra-leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs), citing concerns about investor risk.

Warning letters were sent to nine issuers, including Direxion, ProShares and Tidal, affecting products designed to offer more than 2x exposure to equities, commodities and cryptocurrencies.

The SEC said the proposals exceed regulatory limits on allowable leverage and rely on benchmark definitions that may fail to reflect true market volatility. Some of the planned funds target exposure to highly volatile assets. No 3x or 5x single-stock ETFs currently exist in the US due to existing restrictions.

Leveraged ETF trading has surged since 2020, with total assets rising to around US$162 billion.

Building social license

Much of Debruyne’s role over the past five years has centered on improving engagement with Indigenous communities, many of which have deep historical grievances tied to land, water and the impact of large-scale resource extraction.

“It’s really about being the best neighbor possible,” he said.

But getting there has required fundamental shifts in mindset and method. One of the clearest examples is what Debruyne called the principle of horizontality — a change born from early missteps.

A decade ago, when communities questioned the mine’s hydrological impacts, SQM responded the way many industrial operators would: it sent engineers to explain the technical data.

“You would think that’s a great thing to do,” Debruyne said. “But we learned that’s not the right way, because community members aren’t hydrologists. There’s a vertical difference.”

Instead, SQM now helps communities secure independent experts of their choosing, ensuring conversations happen “on a horizontal level.” This shift has been crucial to rebuilding trust.

Just as important, Debruyne said, is abandoning the western notion of time.

“Communities have a different concept of time. It’s about giving them the time they need — taking information back, returning, iterating. You may think you’re doing things the right way, but there’s always room for improvement.”

Why social investment reduces risk

For Oxfam policy advisor Andrew Bogrand, these types of changes are not just ethical — they’re also practical.

The expert, who also spoke on the panel, noted that since 2010, more than 800 protests or violent incidents have occurred around mine sites globally, including 300 since 2021 alone.

Each one carries real costs: slowdowns, legal expenses, rising insurance premiums — and, as Bogrand pointed out, the hidden cost of executive time diverted to crisis management.

“There is a win-win solution,” he told the Benchmark Week audience. “It’s engaging communities, making sure everyone’s on the same page. Sometimes the solutions are very simple.”

As an example, he pointed to mining projects where warning messages were sent in English to communities that do not speak the language, or where key safety information was delivered over SMS when what residents needed was a physical noticeboard in their own dialect.

Bogrand described companies that “step over a dollar to pick up a penny” — refusing modest community requests, only to face shutdowns costing tens of millions of dollars.

Transparency: A tool, not a threat

Debruyne described transparency as one of SQM’s most effective tools, even if it initially felt counterintuitive.

A few years ago, the company made all hydrological data from its government reporting publicly accessible online.

“I was bracing myself,” he said, expecting to receive dozens of questions about brine levels. But counter to his fears, transparency defused tension rather than fueling it. “I received complete silence,’ Debruyne noted.

It also created a foundation for future collaboration, including joint environmental monitoring programs with communities that had refused to speak with SQM for years.

Moving slow to move fast

The tension between rapid industry growth and slow, iterative sustainability processes often surfaces in investor discussions. For Bogrand, the answer is simple: “You have to move slow to move fast.”

Rushing early stage engagement almost always backfires, he argued, while early investment in community relationships pays dividends across the life of a mine.

Debruyne echoed this idea, noting that patience, consistency and presence — not promises — win trust. In one case, SQM organized a visit for Atacama Indigenous women leaders to electric vehicle and battery plants in Germany and Poland, allowing them to see firsthand where lithium fits in a finished product.

One participant, surprised that the metal formed only a thin coating on a cathode, admitted she had imagined an “Avatar-like” scenario where mines destroyed massive volumes of land for each battery.

“Because they don’t have visibility on the value chain, they make interpretations, which is human,” Debruyne told listeners. “Dialogue is so important.”

Both Debruyne and Bogrand agree that the lithium supply chain cannot scale without social acceptance, credible transparency and deep engagement with affected communities.

As Debruyne noted, “Ultimately, it’s about people.”